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Unread 04-16-2008, 09:37 PM   #1
ChroniC588
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Default $ 200 for barrel of oil...predictions?

June 15, 2009 thats my prediction.
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Unread 04-16-2008, 09:39 PM   #2
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october 18 1/2 at 12:99 fm
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Unread 04-16-2008, 09:42 PM   #3
ChroniC588
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btw...this fellow who posted this comment on another board...is very informative and well thought out (reminded me of Act162this):

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In early 2002, George Bush requested that the DOE and EIA conduct a joint study to see what would happen if the world temporarily lost 4% of its oil production due to a terrorist attack. The result? They estimated that crude prices would spike to over $130 per barrel (at the time, crude was trading at ~$35/barrel on the NYMEX).

Even without a terrorist attack, we are running into a fundamental problem with oil production: big fields are rapidly maturing or even declining.

Many will say that current prices (nearly $100/barrel) will spark a new wave of oil exploration and new alternatives that will act to meet demand. Consider this though:

1. Conventional oil exists in a narrow "window" between 5,000 and 15,000 feet. Below 15,000 feet, pressure and temperature break oil down into methane. Conventional oil is also only trapped by salt domes. It isn't a mysterious art to find oil. We've had the seismic imaging capabilities for two decades. We've probably found all the super-giant fields.

2. All the new conventional oil will probably be in deep water (c.p. the Tupi field in Brazil) and will be difficult to produce. It would be a stretch to get more than 100,000 barrels/day from such a field. This leads me to my next point....

3. Peak oil has nothing to do with reserves and everything to do with production. Here's a good way of understanding it: Let's say I told you that you had $1,000,000,000 in a safe in your basement and that's all the cash you'd ever have. Would that be enough for you to live on? Most people would say "yes" but they'd be overlooking a critical point. They didn't ask how much cash they could withdraw every day. It doesn't matter if you have a billion dollars if you can only withdraw a dollar a day. This is the problem that faces the oil industry and the world economy. We might have billions upon billions of barrels of oil in reserves, but the rate at which we can extract that is falling dues to the laws of nature (see note below).

4. Unconventional oil resources face a problem that is similar to conventional oil: the reserves are high but production will ultimately be low. The University of Alberta was commissioned to study the use of nuclear power instead of natural gas for extracting heavy oil from tar sands. The result? To reach 1,000,000bpd four gigawatt nuclear reactors would have to be constructed at a cost of (more than) $20,000,000,000. The earliest such a reactor would be operational would be 2017. Just in time (sarcasim)

The best answer we have in the short term is conservation. We need massive carpooling programs and a fundamental redesign of vehicles NOW. Just simple stuff like engine downsizing and turbo compounding can double fuel economy. It's a start (cue BP logo and music)
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008...re_traders.php
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Unread 04-16-2008, 10:34 PM   #4
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Watch this short film from Shell. Oil has gotten easier to obtain so I don't think we'll see too radical of a price change that soon.

Last edited by Keith DC5; 04-16-2008 at 10:39 PM.
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Unread 04-16-2008, 11:28 PM   #5
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5 bucks a gallon by december.
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Unread 04-17-2008, 01:53 AM   #6
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well we're screaming to $120 a barrel by next week the way things are going. what's another $80, lessee the dollar would be worth about what it costs to print it... umm, .04 cents?
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Unread 04-17-2008, 02:19 AM   #7
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when oil hit's $200 a barrel the dollar will prolly be worth about a penny, which is a high possibility. Everyday at work I look at the exchange rates, 100 yen to $1 USD.

100 yen in japan can buy pretty much the same there as a dollar would here. 1 yen= 1 cent, you know?

Luckily my job depends on travel and foreign markets (lucky for now) when the dollar tanks -further- my job will make big profits. Asian and European tourists will glady spend more when they feel their money buys them more than usual. I get a %9 payout each time my company makes the overall sales goal, last month I got $250 for the entire month.

Most retailers are in the shits, not my job. DFS is making big bucks and most of it is thanks to the US Dollar losing its value.
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Unread 04-17-2008, 08:59 AM   #8
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True, but in Japan, things are valued much higher than they are here. You can buy a watermelon here for 5 or 6 bucks, or you can spend over $100 for a smaller, but arguably better-tasting watermelon there. $40K a year will allow you to survive here + have a car, but you will shrivel up and die in Japan on that kind of income.
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Unread 04-17-2008, 09:44 AM   #9
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ANWAR.


Drill it.
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Unread 04-17-2008, 03:46 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kreggae
True, but in Japan, things are valued much higher than they are here. You can buy a watermelon here for 5 or 6 bucks, or you can spend over $100 for a smaller, but arguably better-tasting watermelon there. $40K a year will allow you to survive here + have a car, but you will shrivel up and die in Japan on that kind of income.
so if u live in japan it's cheaper to come to third world countries like USA to buy shit?


anyways..lol


Unlike japan America is the Land of over-excess and the wasteful, which is why things are cheaper. Capitalism FTW! then again, look at where it's got us.
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Unread 04-17-2008, 03:52 PM   #11
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200 a Barrell by Summer 2009.\


Me on a bicycle or in my Smartcar by Fall 2009
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Unread 04-17-2008, 04:02 PM   #12
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^^25mil for a smart car? no thanks!
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Unread 04-17-2008, 06:55 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kreggae
True, but in Japan, things are valued much higher than they are here. You can buy a watermelon here for 5 or 6 bucks, or you can spend over $100 for a smaller, but arguably better-tasting watermelon there. $40K a year will allow you to survive here + have a car, but you will shrivel up and die in Japan on that kind of income.
Watermelons aren't that expensive Produce is actually pretty cheap there, but like all things, it depends on the season.

The thing about Japan is that although things tend to be more expensive, they're paid MUCH better than equivalent US positions. My first cousin worked part time at a supermarket and made $30k during his freshman year in college. No waiter tips, no sales commissions, just stocking shelves for 5 hours a day
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Unread 04-24-2008, 01:16 AM   #14
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it may now very well be time for dug! there's the ray of hope. beware of a bear trap and GL!

and if someone somehow manages to yet again mangle my thoughts incorrectly that this is more doom thread, and not a heads up as maybe how to get ahead of the curve, well, put head back in the sand please. "you have no idea!" - Jim Cramer ROFL
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Unread 04-24-2008, 08:16 PM   #15
ChroniC588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by taegu808
it may now very well be time for dug! there's the ray of hope. beware of a bear trap and GL!

and if someone somehow manages to yet again mangle my thoughts incorrectly that this is more doom thread, and not a heads up as maybe how to get ahead of the curve, well, put head back in the sand please. "you have no idea!" - Jim Cramer ROFL
taegu...dont worry...

I kinda ignore Jim Cramer though. I dont trust anybody on Wall Street no more. They know as much about stocks and economics as a talking parrot.
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Unread 04-24-2008, 11:30 PM   #16
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... be happy

Japan trading was halted. that's all my fault too btw LOL!

I expect some Fed or SEC announcements soon on the practices of many firms. more of the police state on the way. this is not prediction but FACT, they even told us so. let's see how good a job they will do on oil. they failed miserably on gold, gaining some traction now but may eventually spin out of control again. and I will be at fault again when it's $2k an oz : oil at $200 / bbl.

Dug. slowly we turned.........

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Last edited by taegu808; 04-25-2008 at 01:43 AM.
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Unread 04-24-2008, 11:39 PM   #17
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so here's what I'm doing personally. studying up on solar systems, most likely on grid because a) too expensive to go totally off and b) I'd like to put power into the grid (maybe get some cash back if Hawaii does that kind of metering?). IMO this is a wise course of action for the future with system subsidies and tax breaks. I've already upgraded major appliances to new energy stars and lightbulbs are CFLs. Hawai'i is one of the best states location wise with so many days of sunshine! perfect application it's a winner.
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